Waynesword December 2007

“Th-the-That that don’t kill me, only makes me stronger… I need you to hurry up, man, ‘cuz I cain’t wait much longer…” --Kanye West, Stronger

Well I’d like Kanye West to address the past year’s Market in real estate, because despite my attempts at sunny monthly re-caps, I’d be lying if I didn't’t admit it’s been a tougher year to make headway in real estate than any in the past decade—for me and for just about everyone I know. Even the cream of the real estate crop have found the results a bit tougher to harvest in a year like this, and there is no firm & reliable guarantee from year to year that things will get any easier…or better. But survival—after 20 years in the business—does make one stronger.

When there is so much negative national press concerning real estate, we are always fighting two battles—the basic challenges of trying to make individual real estate transactions happen, but also the bigger psychological battle of public relations—convincing individuals, families, and investors that despite (or because of) a stagnant market there are still huge opportunities for those with decent credit and some cash to invest.

It was the best of times; it was the worst of times…
--Chas. Dickens

The beauty of being in the world of sales is that even in dire market times you have a chance to meet amazing people who can redeem your faith that things can still go right, when so many others are complaining or giving up. In this past year I can think of many such people who have filled that role for me, and I am more grateful than ever before for their presence. In a good, briskly-moving, market, there is not always opportunity to reflect on the bounty we experience, nor to give proper thanks. In a year like this, every transaction is to be treasured, and every personal relationship that led to a commission check deserves exceptional gratitude. To those few dozen clients who have sustained my family and my fellow agents at SPA Realty this past annum of 2007, I’d like to offer my heartfelt thanks… a little late for Thanksgiving, but in any case before the actual End of the Year 2007.

Make The Stats Say What You Want To…

We like to think that the Capital District in general, and the Saratoga Region in particular, is immune to the distress most of the rest of the real estate nation is feeling, and to a great extent it’s true. One friend of mine—a prominent appraiser named Tony Mariotti, of Empire Appraisal Network of Clifton Park—set out to prove this recently, and sent an email detailing the median price stats for an area in Wilton, the northern suburb of Saratoga Springs. In his appraisal of a half-million dollar home in that area, he produced stats showing that roughly the same number of homes (140) sold in the MLS sub-area 313 in 2006 and 2007. The average price actually climbed from $ 292,000. to $ 293,000. in that period, while the median price dropped slightly from approximately $279,500. to $ 277,500.

This would be encouraging to most homeowners, on the face of it, were it not for the fact that such Sales Statistics only reference those homes that ACTUALLY SOLD, and does not factor in all those that DID NOT. The anecdotal evidence of long-term lingering real estate signs is familiar to virtually every neighborhood and country road right now. The problem as I see it is that so many people are looking to “cash out” and move right now that it has created a glut that will take a while to diminish. The current problem is NOT that NOTHING is selling—it’s that NOT EVERYTHING can possibly sell at once.

MEANWHILE, THE COUNTY WATER LINE CHUGS ALONG…

My appraiser-friend notes, correctly, that this area is buffered somewhat from industrial lay-offs and white-collar woes by virtue of widespread local employment in State Government, the growing nanotechnology sector, the health & hospital industries, and higher education—most of which seem recession-proof. But will there be a host of new, high-paying jobs to come? As we speak, the controversial Saratoga County Water Project is snaking its way from Moreau in the North toward Exit 12’s Malta area in the center of the County in order to facilitate the potential construction of AMD’s proposed new chip-making plant. No matter what the practical outcome of that may be, I daresay it’s a unique situation in upstate New York, in the current business climate. Even if the supposed $5.2 Billion Advanced Micro Devices chip fab plant does NOT come to fruition as the prime beneficiary of the 28-mile long water line headed from the Hudson River near Queensbury south to Malta’s Luther Forest, it seems to me that Saratoga County is still primed for further growth of some sort, at a time when most municipal water systems are maxed out. One thing I haven’t heard much talk about is that the County Sewer System is also at or near full capacity, and if there is to be more population growth, I wonder how that will be handled.

“NO-GROWTH” FACTION LOSES IN SARATOGA PROPER

There was a change of tilt of political power in the recent elections in Saratoga Springs, with Republicans seizing back 3 of the 5 City Council seats— including the Mayoral position which they lost in an upset two years ago, and the Commissioner of Public Works position, which they hadn't’t held for about 3 decades. The upshot of that election is directly related to the discussion of future water needs, and where the water for continued economic growth will come from.

Though I’ve been sympathetic to many Democratic politicians in the past in certain arenas, I was always opposed to the idea of the City of Saratoga Springs drawing water from Saratoga Lake as a future municipal source. Among other reasons, I felt it was unfair to Lake property owners, given that the City of Saratoga Springs only legally owns 18% of the lake surface, and were looking to essentially “take their share off the top.” Since the Democrats, and the now ex-DPW Commissioner in particular, were the proponents of that plan, the County Water Authority, driven by the large majority that Saratoga County Republicans hold on the Board of Supervisors, seems to be the obvious remedy at hand. In the December 13th edition of The SARATOGIAN, one of the headlines read: CITY ASKS TO TAP COUNTY WATER LINE. Before the regime change even occurred, there were not-so-subtle inferences that Saratoga Springs was signaling that they would probably want to be a consumer of county water, at some point down the road. City engineers reportedly put in a request for six valves within the urban limits…just in case they’re ever needed.

On the same front page of Saratoga’s only daily paper was a story about how County officials were going to loan the Town of Malta $2.5 Million to commence with new road construction through the Luther Forest site slated for industrial development. It’s a smart initiative on the County’s part—which in recent years has been holding on to a rare (for upstate) budget surplus, and in this case is using it to encourage the advent of new economic growth, for better or worse. The site could use some dressing up, and some signs of progress. I drove into the Luther Forest Technology Park site once this summer, and it didn't’t look too healthy, or very vibrant. For years it was a sequestered area, a military fuel testing ground at one time, not open to casual visitors, even though it was right on the doorstep of the biggest residential development in the Town of Malta, Luther Forest itself. I’m not sure of the history of ownership, and how it is was cleared to be turned over or sold to the Saratoga Economic Development Council, but once it was, they began to aggressively market it to national and international firms that may want to build a large manufacturing operation there.

The SEDC—largely funded by the County itself-- must be MORE than anxious for a payoff after a decade or so of prep work and PR. I can’t say I blame them for being primed and ready. And even though I still have mixed feelings about what the overall impact— in terms of traffic and environmental issues—might be, I will grudgingly admit that the buzz of anticipation about the eventual project does create a sense that economic lethargy elsewhere can be overcome here.

SYNOPSIS; DURING A SNOWSTORM IN MID-DEC. ‘07

On the day in early December when I started writing this I checked the MLS Hotsheet and found, among other data, three SOLDS of note—2 in the Town of Greenfield, of which I am a resident, and 1 on the eastside of Saratoga Springs. The two in the rural sector of our fine township just west and northwest of Saratoga Springs proper were notable because they were both for prices of over $700,000. for new homes. Such sales at that price level used to be rare in the hinterlands but they were both reported the same day, by two different companies, in two distinctive real estate developments out here. Though I was not involved, I was pleased, and happy for the builders/developers, who in each case faced daunting infrastructure and road costs in the preamble period to actually selling finished homes. It is not easy to develop up here on the rocky plateaus and Adirondack foothills, but the well water on the other hand is great, and it doesn't’t come from a river or lake.

The in-town sale was notable because it used to be—forgive me for saying this—a depression-era composition-siding eyesore of a farmhouse, a relic of the outback in the heart of a nice residential area. I was sensitive to it as I had a good friend’s house listed on York Ave. near there a few year’s back. Many other people have fixed up homes on this street and the quaint and quiet streets nearby, to the north side of Lake Avenue (Rte. 29 East to out-of-towners). But someone bought the funky old farmhouse and did the renovation right—listed as a two-bedroom home in its recent incarnation, the Seller was rewarded when it just Sold for $423,000. Since I have another good client’s home soon to be listed in that same general vicinity, I thought it bodes well for the neighborhood. Watch for that one on my soon-to-be re-vamped Listings page.

(Meanwhile, if you haven’t caught up with the other parts of my web site yet—the Saratoga Updates section is the most recent addition, with more graphics being added soon.)

GLOBAL WARMING BACKS OFF FOR THE MOMENT…

My theory is that I get more contemplative writing done when
there are beloved snow days, and there have already been 4 or 5 decent winter weather events by mid-December this year than there were up to mid-January a year ago, when the first one hit. At this time last year, I was still joking with my neighbor about having to mow the lawn, since it was still green at the time. Now it is purely white. Lawn equipment is safely put away, and snow shovels remain in active use. The polar bears are hopefully safe up north for another year, but the deer hereabouts are probably hungry right now. My wife rightly claimed that the Almanac promised lots of white stuff coming down this year, and that must be a good shot of life-blood for the troubled ski industry around here and to the north. My back muscles are already feeling the result of a few mid-grade blizzards, as we, like the unofficial Amish-without-the-beards, prefer to shovel manually rather than employ fume-spewing gas-powered machines to clear the driveway and sidewalks.

I will admit however that my manual shoveling principles are in effect only for snow amounts up to a foot or so deep; beyond that I call in the plow-guy. So far, so good.

MIDDLE-OF-THE-MONTH RECAPS NOW THE NORM…

I’ve decided it will be better for me, and more informative for you, if I post my monthly Waynesword updates in the middle of each respective month instead of the beginning. Who knows what a month will bring? Better to get a feel for it than to guess in advance.

For those who seek out the HOOP Page, I will be working on that next, with Real Estate Anecdotes, the Listings Page, and the long-awaited Music/Media Blog in the wings. The more it snows the more I write. But I’m still ready for forays into the real estate world as well, so for any questions, reactions, or commentary sought on those subjects, reply to wayne@waynesword.com and I’ll be sure to answer.

My friend and webmaster Paul Garhartt of PGI Networks has some new formatting ideas in process as well, so there is a new look to the Website. Here’s to a prosperous and peaceful 2008 to come. Yes, there will be some fall-out and pain in the world of real estate agency, and on the part of certain Would-Be Sellers. But I plan to be among those who not only survive but thrive in the trying times, and I remain anxious to turn the page on a new year!

Posted December 16, 2007